"The most important aspect of Christianity is not the work we do, but the relationship we maintain and the surrounding influence and qualities produced by that relationship. That is all God asks us to give our attention to, and it is the one thing that is continually under attack.
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- Oswald Chambers, My Utmost For His Highest
Sunday, October 31, 2004
The internet is awash in talk about the election that is (hopefully) going to finally be decided on Tuesday.
The good folks at National Review's Corner are confident that Bush will win, with a few giddily predicting a landslide.
Most polls and www.electoral-vote.com show the race deadlocked, and some have Kerry edging ahead.
We all know who Al Jazeera and Osama Bin Laden are pulling for.
And this dour, sad, strange little man is sticking with his original prediction. In fact, he's feeling a bit depressed today. The prospect of the French, his liberal coworkers, Michael Moore, and all the world's terrorists dancing in the streets on Wednesday has put him into a dark demeanor. Hopefully church today will help him gain a more eternal perspective.
So, are you willing to go on record with a prediction? Who will win? By how much? If you have a strong take, leave it in the comments section.
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Comments on "Election Prediction, Anyone?":
4. tychicus
- 10/31/2004 8:14 am CST
The popular vote is a toss-up because of the overpowering numerical majority of votes for Kerry in NY and CA. Electoral will go to Bush setting up a possible repeat of 2000. This would be a national disaster because the Democrats will not go quietly in the night this time.
5. Bill
- 10/31/2004 8:23 am CST
tychicus,
You've actually just described the worst-case scenario, imo. Worse than a Kerry win is another disputed election.
Let's hope the winner is clearly the winner this time.
6. Jared
- 10/31/2004 9:06 am CST
I don't have a strong take as requested, but I'm with Lee. I think it will be close, but Bush will win with enough of an edge that the 2000 debacle won't be repeated.
7. Phil in CA
- 10/31/2004 9:19 am CST
My worse case scenario is a Kerry win by a slight amount, then to discover a great number of legitimate votes not counted that would likely have gone for Bush. Historical example: In 2000 there were a great many military (read: pro-Bush) ballots that were not counted in Florida. Had they been counted, the overall popular vote in Florida would have clearly been for Bush -- no matter what the outcome of the West Palm Beach vote fiasco.
So my question is: If Kerry eeks out a slim victory, and yet there is obvious credible evidence that Bush should have won a state (thereby reversing the electoral collage winner), will the REPUBLICANS sue? If so, won't that leave the liberal whinning that we're "attempting to steal the election again"? *shudders*
Phil
10. jen
- 10/31/2004 10:15 am CST
Fred's dead wrong - if Bush loses, he will be gracious in defeat. What the rest of the Republican party does is another matter.
However, I think that Bush will win.
11. Jared
- 10/31/2004 12:46 pm CST
Wasn't Fred Garvin the name of the male prostitute Dan Akyroyd played on SNL?
No offense, Fred, if that is your real name. I just wondered if it was a "handle" you got from SNL.
12. salguod
- 10/31/2004 2:13 pm CST
Part of me thinks the it will go handily to Bush, but all the polls can't be wrong. The reasons I think this is I recall a similarity to the Clinton vs. Dole election. Too close to call down to the wire (though not as dramatic) and one side determined more than anything else to get the incumbant out. So much so that removing him had become their message and they actually had little message of their own. It didn't work for Dole (rather dramatically compared to the polls at the time, as I recall) and I don't think it's going to work for Kerry.
Then again, the poll today published by our local paper (The Columbus Dispatch) surveyed 2,800 people and the difference was 8 votes. Eight. Could be ugly.
13. Kevin
- 10/31/2004 2:58 pm CST
My guess. Kerry has failed to make the economy the issue it could have been, but he has somehow managed to look like he is on the same playing field with Bush on defence. I say it's close, but it doesn't feel as bad as it felt in '92.
Bush, but not comfortably.
Either way, I will be working the polls in Columbus in an "inner city" precinct that is heavily Democratic. It ought to be exciting!
16. Rong
- 11/01/2004 5:00 am CST
I'm sorry Eeyore, the Redskins lost the game this past weekend and according to statistics that means that Bush will lose.
Skins game to decide election
18. Le Sabot Post-Moderne
- 11/01/2004 9:48 am CST
President: Bush beats Kerry Popular Vote Bush 49.5% Kerry 48.5% Nader 1% Fringe Types 1% Electoral Count Bush 284 EVs Kerry 254 EVs Senate: R 53, D 46, I 1 Republicans take NC, SC, GA, KY, OK, FL, LA and...
19. Quaid
- 11/01/2004 11:14 am CST
Bush will win the popular vote.
I thin he will win 50% of the popular vote - something that hasn't been done since 1988 (if memory serves me correctly).
He will win the electoral college by a slimmer margin of victory.
There will be lawsuits, but not enough to put the outcome of the election in doubt.
20. tychicus
- 11/01/2004 11:36 am CST
Bush's popular vote will not be enough to overcome the popular vote margins in CA and NY. But I don't see Kerry winning the electoral vote. The President needs a clear electoral victory to make this potential mess go away. If its close again, only the lawyers will win.
A really good article by conservative Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post discussing what's been happening in the world since the War in Iraq and presidential campaign began. Not very encouraging. The only thing keeping our economy going under President Bush has been low interest rates, which have nothing to do with him or any other president. Tax breaks are almost irrelevant at this point because of the disasterous increase in energy and oil prices. Inflation is soon to follow as these prices ripple through the whole economy.
The terrorists have us just where they want us...pinned down in a Muslim country surrounded by other Muslim countries. Iran doesn't fear us because they know we would have to have a draft to deal with them. We will die the death of a thousand lashes as Osama now looks like more and more of a hero to increasingly disenchanted young Muslim males.
22. Quaid
- 11/02/2004 9:36 pm CST
"Bush's popular vote will not be enough to overcome the popular vote margins in CA and NY."
I know hindsight is 20/20, but middle America just kicked NY and CA's hindparts.
I'll admit that I was wrong, too. I said Bush would get 50% of the popular vote. He appears to have 51%. Oh well, there's always 2008 . . .
I think that Bush will squeak out a win. I also believe it will be a big enough margin to squash any re-count nonsense.