"Do not put your trust in princes, nor in a son of man, in whom there is no help. His spirit departs, he returns to his earth; in that very day his plans perish. Happy is he who has the God of Jacob for his help, whose hope is in the LORD his God, who made heaven and earth, The sea, and all that is in them; who keeps truth forever, who executes justice for the oppressed, who gives food to the hungry. The LORD gives freedom to the prisoners."
- Psalm 146:3-7
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Do you have any predictions for 2012?
I'm going to posit a few:
1. Here's a bold prediction: Barack Obama will not win re-election.
No, I am not underestimating the man. He's very, very good at campaigning, he is personally popular (though his current job approval ratings are pretty low). And, though I disagree with most of his policies, I believe he is a smart and talented politician.
But . . .
I don't think you can underestimate how bad the global economy is looking. There are just too many downward pressures: the financial ailments of the Eurozone, the instability in the Middle East, our large debt burden. For most voters, the economy is the biggest issue right now, and I don't expect it to improve very much between now and November 2012, though I hope I'm wrong. If it hasn't improved, I think Obama is done.
As a side prediction, Obama will replace Joe Biden as his running mate with someone else - perhaps Hillary.
2. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and will be elected President. This is, of course, a corollary to my first prediction, and if I'm wrong on #1 I'll get a twofer fail. Regarding Romney, like him or not, he will be the most palatable alternative to Obama for most Americans. And they will vote for him, if things don't improve significantly in the economy.
3. The New Orleans Saints will beat the Pittsburg Steelers in the Superbowl. I'm never right about sports predictions, but I had to try. I'm assuming Big Ben's ankle gets better. And I realize that the Packers are having a great year. But what the hay.
5. Blo will post on Thinklings at least once in 2012. Hey, a guy can dream.
So, what do you think? Do you have some predictions, or want to take me to task for mine? Have at it in the comments.
Trackbacks:
Trackback URL: http://thinklings.org/bloo.trackback.php/6580.
Comments on "Predictions for 2012":
2. Bill
- 12/29/2011 7:41 am CST
Mark,
You may well be correct on this. And I agree with you on the sad state of the GOP.
My thought is this. Right now, from polls I've seen, Romney is a viable candidate against Obama, while not a clear winner. Once the primaries are over, the Republicans will warm to their candidate. Romney seems presidential, has some good experience, doesn't seem to have any skeletons, and can probably mount a good campaign. And he's not Obama - assuming the economy doesn't improve, there will be a lot of people ready for change at the top.
But . . . it's a long way till November 2012.
By the way, what country are you from?
3. Andrew
- 12/29/2011 11:01 am CST
My thought is this. Right now, from polls I've seen, Romney is a viable candidate against Obama, while not a clear winner. Once the primaries are over, the Republicans will warm to their candidate. Romney seems presidential, has some good experience, doesn't seem to have any skeletons, and can probably mount a good campaign.
I think he'll end up winning the nomination too, and I agree that Republicans will warm up to him. His problem is a sincerity problem. On most issues, it is very hard to believe that he believes the words passing between his lips. Some of this is based on his public record of vacillation, and some is based simply on the fact that he can come off as smug, aloof, and automated. Fortunately for him, he is facing one of the most inept groups of candidates we've ever seen, and none of them have been able to attack him effectively. I think Obama will be able to attack him effectively, because some of Romney's biggest vulnerabilities (the fact that Romneycare and Obamacare are virtually identical programs, for instance) happen to coincide with some of Obama's. My guess is that Obama will be able to get there first, and make Romney look like a hypocrite for attacking him on healthcare, foreign policy, or social issues (Looking at Romney's record on gay rights, it becomes pretty obvious that his opinion changes based on who he is talking to). This leaves economics, which I believe is Obama's biggest weakness right now. The problem there is that Romney is very wealthy, and has always had wealth. It's true that he has always been a hard worker, but my theory is that it will be very hard to convince people struggling to get by that this very rich guy who has never been poor actually empathizes with them. Obama is a millionaire, too, but Romney is worth at least 20 times what the Obamas are. Obama also has his experiences in inner-city Chicago to fall back on. These experiences carry an ethos that I don't think Romney's time in Nantes can quite match. It's unfair, but elections are all about perception.
I do not know who will win the general election, nor can I really bring myself to care. I think Romney is the smartest GOP candidate, probably the most virtuous personally, and is probably more ready than anyone he shares the stage with to campaign for the general election. If he can shore up the Republican nomination, he can make his pivot to the center, which is where he is most comfortable and hope that Republicans don't abandon him en masse (they won't), and that enough independents are sick of Obama (my guess is that many of them are) to swing the election his way.
Now I'm depressed thinking that for the next eleven months, we'll all be forced to pay attention to electoral politics. Ugh.
6. Shrode
- 01/04/2012 10:22 am CST
Bill,
I love you man.
But you are wrong on all five. :-) In the meantime stay tuned for an update on the predictions I made almost two years ago.
You can just call me "Nostra-Phil-amus"
7. Shrode
- 01/04/2012 10:24 am CST
My son Joel's superbowl prediction:
Pats v. Packers
Packers win.
Me? Now that my 'boys are out, I'm rootin' for a wild card contender to take it all. per my 4 year old, we're going to root for lions or tigers to make it to the "Super Bowl Party."
8. Bill
- 01/04/2012 11:45 am CST
Phil - hah!
Well, with hindsight I realize my Steelers prediction was kind of silly, now that their running back is out and with Big Ben's injury. And I didn't expect the Pats to get home field throughout the playoffs.
Do you realize that if they win it all Jared is going to be absolutely insufferable? :-)
Also, the "tigers" are not going to win it all. Because the Texans are going to knock them out this Saturday. [Bill puts on his best scary game-face]
Also, I think it's funny that I numbered my predictions 1, 2, 3, and 5. I just noticed that. What was I thinking? What was the phantom fourth prediction? What's wrong with me?
This is all Blo's fault . . .
10. Raindream
- 01/06/2012 12:06 pm CST
Heh, Blo made the fourth prediction.
I'm with you Bill, though I plan to vote to Gingrich at this point. It's interesting that while Romney is currently 27% and Gingrich 19% in Gallup's polling, Romney has slowly risen to that point (with a small spikes). Only Gingrich among all of the candidates has risen to 37% (early December). This may be a sign of the man's personal and positional popularity or a sign of the strength of the anti-Romney feeling.
The long and the short is that Romney will have to fight to win, if he does, and Obama will have to fight to win as well. We'll have to see how much Santorum follows the path of Huckabee.
Leave a Comment:
Hi Bill,
Honestly, I think its quite unlikely that Obama will lose.
From what I've seen in terms of polls, only Romney and Paul stand a chance to exceed 40% of the popular vote against Obama.
I think It's really a quite sad testament to the state of the GOP when it can't even mount an effective attack on Obama in these circumstances when Obama has failed so wildly.
Romney? Yeck. I'm not American, but if I were I'd abstain from the vote if Obama and Romney were my only chances.