"Do not put your trust in princes, nor in a son of man, in whom there is no help. His spirit departs, he returns to his earth; in that very day his plans perish. Happy is he who has the God of Jacob for his help, whose hope is in the LORD his God, who made heaven and earth, The sea, and all that is in them; who keeps truth forever, who executes justice for the oppressed, who gives food to the hungry. The LORD gives freedom to the prisoners."
- Psalm 146:3-7
Friday, January 13, 2012
I was 1-4 last weekend, although I didn't mind being wrong on a couple of those.
Grain of salt included, here are my predictions for this weekend's games.
New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
New Orleans over San Francisco
Green Bay over New York Giants
I'm still calling a Saints-Patriots Super Bowl.
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Comments on "Weekend Playoff Predictions":
2. Brian
- 01/13/2012 1:26 pm CST
I would like to see Rodgers and the Packers beat Brees and the Saints in a close shootout. The Super Bowl will be a great matchup between two of the best teams of the last fifteen years (And a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI) as the Packers face the Patriots.
Although seeing the Broncos upset the Pats would be a lot of fun!
3. Bill
- 01/13/2012 2:16 pm CST
New England over Denver (I'd love to be wrong about this one)
Houston over Baltimore (this is more my heart talking than my head. No one really expects the Texans to win this one. But, as they say, on any given Sunday . . .)
New Orleans over San Francisco
Green Bay over the New York Giants
4. Bill
- 01/13/2012 2:17 pm CST
Oh, also, my Superbowl prediction (now) is Saints over the Patriots
5. nhe
- 01/13/2012 3:04 pm CST
I'm starting to see SF beating NO (maybe its my Falcon fan disdain for the Saints).....still picking GB, but watch out for NYG.......would not be shocked if (come Monday) everyone is scratching their heads over neither GB or NO being in the final 4.......Super Bowl NE over SF........its Brady's world, we're all just Tebowing in it.
6. Bill
- 01/13/2012 3:22 pm CST
nhe,
I had the same thought, that SF might pull an upset (they have home field, correct?) I don't know - the Saints are really good and Brees is a beast this year, but you may be right.
If the Pats can win this year, then Brady will have solidified that he is, indeed, fully worthy of Jared's man-crush, because it's not very common that a team with a defense that bad has that much post-season success. But with Brady's track record, you certainly can't count him out.
How about a Giants-Pats rematch? :-)
7. damien howard
- 01/14/2012 9:30 am CST
last week i picked all the winners except for denver...but i was rooting for them big time. notice, all the home teams won. this week i'm in line with jared on the picks, but my heart goes to denver again.
i've got saints over ravens in the superbowl. but the packers have "inevitability" written all over them.
9. Bill
- 01/14/2012 6:37 pm CST
Well, the game is still going on, but nhe's prediction about the SF upset looks like it may be coming true. The Saints are down one score, with lots of time left, so they may still pull this out. But with five turnovers . . .
So I'll be starting out 0-1 in my predictions. Ugh.
12. Bill
- 01/14/2012 8:35 pm CST
Yikes. I don't know if the Broncos know what's hitting them here. This is getting ugly.
14. Bill
- 01/15/2012 6:40 am CST
Yeah . . . other than the interception, the dude was near-perfect.
what happened to the vaunted Denver defense? They were horrible.
And what happened to the supposedly awful Patriots defense? They were incredible.
Maybe it's just that the Broncos didn't have a good game. But it almost looks like evil Bellichek has been holding back all season. Good grief.
With NO out of it, I'm revising my Superbowl prediction. It will be Patriots - Green Bay, with the Patriots winning it all.
(that was hard to write . . .)
15. nhe
- 01/15/2012 9:13 am CST
Thanks Bill....you know, the Saints have still never won a road playoff game in their history...but I got lucky - even blind honey badgers can find cobra larvae now and then......I'm going to stay with my NE/SF Super Bowl...with NE winning it all...I'm not at the Jared level of Brady puppy-love, but I think I'm getting to the poor man's version.
16. Jared
- 01/15/2012 12:50 pm CST
SF's handling of NO makes me think they've got the stuff against Green Bay too, esp. given GB's occasionally wobbly defense, so if GB beats NY today, I'd see SF beating them next week.
I'm 1-2 as it is.
I'm revising to say that next week we'll see:
SF over Green Bay
Patriots over Houston
49'ers/Patriots Super Bowl.
17. Chris
- 01/15/2012 2:54 pm CST
I'm revising to say that next week we'll see:
SF over Green Bay
Patriots over Houston
I'm really hoping you're wrong about the SF/GB matchup, Jared. At this point (>4 minutes left in the Houston game) it looks like Baltimore will be going up against the Pats now.
I'm going to hope for a Patriots-Packers Super Bowl, with the Pack taking the win. But then I'm a die-hard Green Bay fan, though, so take my prediction with a grain (or maybe a pound) of salt.
18. Bill
- 01/15/2012 3:18 pm CST
Well, I'm now 1-2. Bummed about the Houston game - we played Baltimore so well, but you can't get over 2 turnovers resulting in 14 points in the first quarter. It was exciting to be in the game to the very end.
The Patriots were so incredibly good yesterday - and though Brady was amazing, Gronkowski was also redonkulous. (And Bellicheck was at his normal evil best)
After seeing the Ravens and how they played us at home, I'm not sure that they can beat the Pats last week. They only beat a Houston Texans team with a 3rd string quarterback by seven points, and that was largely due to the play of the 3rd string quarterback, throwing interceptions. Brady in Foxborough will be a whole 'nother story.
I *think* GB will prevail tonight, although I wouldn't mind a Giants win. But I'd like to end this week at least .500 in predictions :-)
20. Bill
- 01/15/2012 4:48 pm CST
Jared, regarding next week's prediction, I have this
Green Bay over SF. I think playing at Lambeau will make a big difference
Patriots over Ravens
GB/Patriots Super Bowl. Patriots win, but I'll revise that if they don't play as dominantly against the Ravens next week, even if they win. I need to know if the game last night was just because the Broncos were awful. But I think it likely that the Patriots can win it all, especially if their defense steps up like it did last night.
21. Bill
- 01/15/2012 6:29 pm CST
*sigh*
I'm happy for the Giants, but I am really disappointed in my own ability to predict (provided the Giants hold on to win this one).
Jared - neither you or I have a second career in front of us as Vegas odds-makers.
OK, about my tenth revision, but now I've got a rematch of 2007 - Patriots versus Giants, with Giants prevailing again.
23. Bill
- 01/15/2012 6:45 pm CST
True dat :-)
I think, actually, there's a case to be made that I'm jumping the gun on a Giants prediction. But I'm just highly impressed by the Giants ability to beat the Packers in Lambeau. I realize this gives SF an easier road, as they have home field next week. But I'll stick with the Giants prediction.
Giants just scored again. This one is OVAH.
25. Karl
- 01/16/2012 8:24 am CST
I'm really looking forward to that Giants-SF game. Both teams come in really confident and with defenses playing at a pretty high level. I have to give the nod to the Giants b/c they have the better QB. But SF just seems to have the magic this year so I wouldn't be shocked to see them win it.
I expect NE to take care of Baltimore and beat either th Giants or 49ers. Which really will be hard to stomach, if it happens.
So . . . what do y'all think Tebow's long term prospects are as an NFL QB? Long term, successful NFL starter or no? It was a wild and fun ride for him and the Broncos this season, with enough high points and enough complete duds to give ammunition to both sides of the argument.
26. Shrode
- 01/16/2012 10:11 am CST
Two 1-4 weekends in a row! :-)
I couldn't be more happy about the niner's upset over the saints. I love it when the underdog wins!
As far as what happens to the Packers...so much for the myth that you can get to a national championship with an awesome offense and a lousy defense...
27. nhe
- 01/16/2012 10:19 am CST
So . . . what do y'all think Tebow's long term prospects are as an NFL QB? Long term, successful NFL starter or no? It was a wild and fun ride for him and the Broncos this season, with enough high points and enough complete duds to give ammunition to both sides of the argument.
Personally, I move him to TE now. But, he has earned the right to start the season as the Broncos' QB next year. I don't think the Broncos can build an offense around him that will work in the NFL......and I don't think they'll try. I think they'll see if Tebow can play a full season successfully in a traditional scheme that requires him to at least complete 15-20 passes a game.........I don't think he can do that.
In anticipation of all that though, if I were Tebow, I'd watch all the Steve Young tape I can find. He was left handed with very similar size and mobility to Tebow.....he was a better pure passer though. If Tebow has a chance, that's the guy he has emulate.
However, the Broncos don't have a big-time TE - I'd move Tebow there ASAP - if he's not their QB, he still needs to be on the field.......I'd make sure I get him 10-15 touches a game, be it at TE, H-Back, Wildcat QB.......etc.
28. Karl
- 01/16/2012 10:46 am CST
I agree with you nhe. In his last two games, Tebow completed 10 passes (in a win, averaging over 30 ypc on those 10) and 9 passes (in an ugly loss). That just isn't going to work in the NFL over the long haul.
The physicality of NFL defenses will limit him to a pretty short career if they build the offense around what they did this season and he keeps on running the option as much as he did this year. And while I understand the Young comparison when it comes to mobility and left-handedness, I think Young was a much more accurate and natural passer coming out of college than Tebow ever has been. He just has SO far to go before his passing game is consistently where it needs to be in order to succeed as an NFL QB.
But I don't see a move to TE happening. I don't see how the Broncos can avoid going with him as their starter. He's earned the opportunity to try to prove the doubters wrong and he's a favorite of the fans. I'm sure that no NFL QB will work harder than Tebow this offseason, as he tries to improve the weak spots in his game. Maybe he can get there, buying time with his mobility, moxie and running ability for another year or two as he continues to work on his passing game. But I just don't think that he has the raw ability as a passer that would enable him to get over the hump.
29. Bill
- 01/16/2012 10:58 am CST
It will be interesting to see. On the one hand, Tebow has obvious deficiencies in the passing game. On the other, he's possibly the hardest worker in NFL football right now, and he has the intangibles in leadership and drive that you want.
Normally, it takes three years for a rookie QB to come into his own. Tebow's at about the 1 1/2 year mark. If I were the Broncos, I'd give him at least next season (but I'd also be looking to bring in a QB in the off season or draft, as a stop-gap).
As far as what happens to the Packers...so much for the myth that you can get to a national championship with an awesome offense and a lousy defense...
Shrode - what about the Patriots?
If the Ravens had clobbered the Texans, I'd be thinking that the Patriots are in trouble. But the Ravens barely won, even with no turnovers, no penalties, and getting four turnovers from the Texans. At home - I think the Patriots will kill the Ravens next week.
Looking for another Giants - Patriots superbowl.
30. Tony
- 01/17/2012 9:57 am CST
Alright football fans, I too have been keeping track of the football playoffs and somewhat enjoy the chaos that seems to follow football more than any other sport. Football = 1 and done. It is a blessing and a curse for the sport.
SF, with their #2 ranked defense, should be able to send the Giants home unless the Giants have any football to helmet catches in the game. It would take luck for the Giants to beat SF, no? :)
Don't count the ravens out - classic good Offense vs. good Defense. The ravens defense could be disruptive enough to throw Brady's timing off. NE played against the #1 ranked defense team (Steelers) this year and only scored 17 pts and lost. Dallas had a pretty good defense this year and NE had trouble winning that game (only scored 20 points). Also, Miami had a pretty good defense and Miami almost picked up the win in week 16 (week 1 Miami lost to NE badly - but hey that was week 1).
The ravens are 4-4 on the road this season and their offense is average to below, so it will take a brilliant game from Flaco and/or the ravens defense will have to win the game.
All that to say, statiscally it should be a SF and NE superbowl with SF winning it. SF's defense was nearly as good as the Steelers.
But then again, statistically it should be SF and GB playing this weekend :)
31. Karl
- 01/17/2012 10:10 am CST
Re. Tony's post #30:
I'd love for SF to beat the Giants and I think they have a real shot. But I don't see it as the Giants needing luck to win. The way the Giants have been playing lately, season-long statistical comparisons may be a little misleading. Instead my analysis is that both teams' defenses are playing very well - although SF's D may be better overall. But the Giants have a significant edge at QB, which in my mind kind of offsets the edge the 49ers have on D and makes it a pretty even matchup. I'll be rooting for SF - I like the way they've been winning games and would love to see them go all the way.
32. Shrode
- 01/17/2012 10:55 am CST
In response to me saying, As far as what happens to the Packers...so much for the myth that you can get to a national championship with an awesome offense and a lousy defense...
Bill wrote:
Shrode - what about the Patriots?
Yeah, Good point. We'll see what happens. I really had concerns about a Packers vs. Patriots Superbowl. If that had turned out to be the case, I wonder if that would have shifted Team strategies across the NFL to duplicate the Packers and Patriots success, to just start piling up money and resources, draft picks etc... into offense and not worry so much about defense. That would really begin to affect the game I think. I hope that doesn't happen. If we had an NFL full of strong offenses and weak defenses, that would start to get weird.
33. Tony
- 01/17/2012 1:49 pm CST
Hey Karl,
You could be right about the Giants and sometimes teams are completely different in the playoffs than the regular season. But it is hard to overlook the Giants giving up 400 points to opponents compared to SF's 229 (Avg. of 14.3 pts per game). When you look at SF's schedule this past season there were 6 games where they held their opponents to 10 pts or less. They held a pretty good Detroit offense to 19 pts, oh and they already beat the Giants 27-20 this season :) It is SF's game to win or lose.
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I just have one difference. With apologies to the Texas Thinklings crowd, I think their team's run ends this week even though I'll be rooting for them to beat the Ravens.
New England over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
New Orleans over San Francisco
Green Bay over New York Giants